2024 US Presidential Election: How a Kennedy could spoil a Biden or Trump 2024 poll party

In the upcoming 2024 US presidential election, things might be different from the usual two-party competition between Democrats and Republicans. A new player, Robert F Kennedy Jr, from the well-known Kennedy political family, is running as an independent candidate and gaining remarkable support.

Kennedy, despite being from a traditionally Democratic family, has appeal across party lines. A recent Harvard CAPS-Harris survey showed that he leads in favorability among 2024 presidential candidates, with 52% of respondents having a positive opinion of him. This is significant, considering that even Donald Trump, the Republican frontrunner, trailed behind with a favorability rating of 51%.
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Kennedy's popularity could play a crucial role in swing states, where the race between the Democrat frontrunner, President Joe Biden, and his rival, Donald Trump, is expected to be close. Kennedy, at 69, is the youngest among the three candidates, which may address concerns about the age of Biden and Trump.

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One aspect that makes Kennedy stand out is his unconventional stance on vaccines, leading to his ban from YouTube. This position, along with his association with conspiracy theories, appeals to the right-of-center voter base that supports Trump.

Voter fatigue is evident in the high unfavorability ratings for both Biden and Trump. A Reuters/Ipsos poll suggested that Kennedy could attract about one in seven American voters, and a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found that he had the backing of 10% of swing-state voters.

The impact of Kennedy's candidacy becomes more apparent when considering that in a hypothetical scenario where he enters the race, 8% of Biden voters and 7% of Trump voters would support him. This could potentially sway the outcome in closely contested battleground states.

Despite Kennedy's fringe views, there is a historical precedent for independent candidates making a significant impact. Ross Perot in 1992 and George Wallace in 1968 garnered substantial support as third-party candidates, influencing the election results.

According to a CNN analysis, Kennedy's support is at 22% among registered voters, making him a potential game-changer in the 2024 polls. The analysis suggests that Kennedy's candidacy could alter the dynamics in key states that Biden won in 2020, bringing the race down to the wire.

While there is still time for voter preferences to evolve, Robert F Kennedy Jr's entry into the presidential race could add a compelling and unpredictable element to the Biden-Trump contest in 2024.  We kindly request you to disseminate this news and provide your insights in the comments section. Thank you